Euro 2004 tiebreakers - by wongoz

So the knockout round of the European football (sorry, soccer) championship begins today, starting with a sweet matchup involving England and host country Portugal. The other matches of the quarterfinals are: France vs. Greece, Sweden vs. Denmark, and the Netherlands vs. the Czech Republic. My sleeper pick of the Czechs is looking pretty good, though both Apollo and I are rooting for the French.

One of the most exciting things about the Euro tournament is the round-robin style pool qualification round. Due to the possibility of ties (or draws), there are more than a few permutations of results which can lead to teams finishing with the same number of points. Therein lies the basis of this post: how people don't understand the tiebreaker system.

Two days ago, Sweden drew 2-2 with Denmark, a result that guaranteed both teams entry to the quarterfinal round, regardless of how Italy fared in their match against Bulgaria (Italy won 2-1). The complicated system of tiebreakers determined that though all 3 teams had 5 points (1 win, 2 draws), it was the Scandinavian contingent which would advance.

I read no less than 3 incorrect reports about the reason why the Swedes and Danes would advance rather than Italy. Two articles (here and here) said it was due to superior goal differential, while another article was blatantly wrong in specifying "a lack of goals against". Say what?

So what are the tiebreakers? According to the BBC, the order goes: 1. head-to-head record; 2. goal differential vs. tied teams; 3. goals scored vs. tied teams; 4. goal differential vs. whole group; 5. goals scored vs. whole group; and then a couple more not based on the competition.

Let's have a go at it, shall we?

1. Head-to-head record: all 3 teams tied each other during their matches - Italy 0-0 Denmark, Italy 1-1 Sweden, Sweden 2-2 Denmark. Onto the next one...

2. Goal differential vs. tied teams - well, since they all tied, the goal differential for all 3 teams vs. the others would obviously be 0. Next!

3. Goals scored vs. tied teams - where's the beef? It's right here, baby. Previous to Tuesday's results, Italy had scored only 1 goal in the matches against Sweden and Denmark. Sweden had only 1 goal in its match vs. Italy, while Denmark was goalless.

This is where it opens up. If either Denmark or Sweden had won their match outright, then it would have been the winner plus Italy who would've advanced (since the loser would have had only 4 points). But a 2-2 draw (or one with a higher goal count) meant the result of the Italy-Bulgaria match was irrelevant.

If you haven't grasped it by now, here's why: a 0-0 draw or 1-1 draw would've given Sweden the clear edge in the third tiebreaker (goals scored vs. tied teams), but Denmark would've either lost (if 0-0) or tied (if 1-1) on goals scored with Italy. If the result was indeed 1-1, then the fourth tiebreaker (goal differential vs. the whole group) would've been used between Denmark and Italy, which is why Italy needed to win by at least 3 goals to advance (that they didn't is another story).

However, the 2-2 draw gave Sweden 3 goals scored vs. Italy and Denmark, while Denmark had 2 goals vs. the other teams, leaving Italy on the sidelines with just 1 goal scored vs. the Nordic teams. Thus, the 2-2 draw negated the score of the Italy-Bulgaria match, even if it was 15-0. So much for superior goal differential.

Bottom line? Sweden and Denmark advanced due to having scored more goals amongst the tied teams, and Italy became the first team since pool play was introduced in 1980 to fail to advance to the quarterfinals despite not having lost a match.