Will JP think it's Miller time? - by wongoz

Posts on consecutive days! Perish the thought! Haha... well, maybe I'm inspired because Apollo called me last night for a brief conversation wherein he asked for my street address because he couldn't remember if I had moved since the time he came to visit.

Ok, lost in all this mumbo-jumbo (and perhaps deservedly so) of the Vince Carter trade and the Ron Artest brawl is the Toronto Blue Jays' offseason. Obviously, the biggest move so far has been the loss of free-agent slugger Carlos Delgado, who was to the Jays as Carter was to the Raptors. Perhaps not as important on the field (after all, there are 9 players on a baseball diamond), but no less important in off-the-field terms. Delgado was a good citizen, stayed out of trouble and even held a political stance that resonated with some Torontonians.

In the wake of last season's fiasco, finishing last in the AL East after 7 or 8 straight years in third, GM JP Ricciardi knows he has some retooling to do, and now unburdened by Delgado's contract, he's gotta put his money where his mouth is. Funny thing is, it seems like it's more of the same thing.

Coming from the Billy Beane school of "Moneyball" methods, JP has put an emphasis on high walks and low strikeouts on his hitters, and vice versa for his pitchers, while eschewing traditional scouting reports and the supposed "five-tool" rankings.

It hasn't quite worked out the way it was supposed to: Eric Hinske, a third baseman supposedly in the Eric Chavez mold, has lost his way, and now his position; the closer-by-committee approach failed miserably, as Kerry Ligetnberg, Justin Speier, Jason Frasor, Aquilino Lopez and others stunk up the joint; and his trade record with anyone other than Oakland looks suspect, with the Luke Prokopec deal smelling foulest.

But it was always the Delgado contract which tied his hands, right? Now that he's free of those handcuffs, what is he doing with this money? So far, the only move of note is the signing of third baseman Corey Koskie, a native Manitoban who probably accepted a slight discount to play for the team he cheered for as a kid. His signing displaces Hinske, who, unless JP can find a new home for him, will be moved to first base. Doesn't this strike anyone as perversely illogical? The man who doesn't hit enough for third base is now going to be moved to first base, where offensive expectations are even higher?

Whatever. Pitching makes up for a lot of offensive deficiencies, and with Roy Halladay and Ted Lilly still on board, they're within striking distance of a respectable rotation. JP has to nail down a second or third starter though, and to that end, he was chasing Matt Clement, formerly of the Chicago Cubs. The talent is there, to be sure, but for all his abilities to strikeout batters (more than 1 per inning pitched last season), he has never seemed to be able to put it all together.

Luckily for JP, there's another option. He can throw the millions he was luring Clement with to the just-became-a-free-agent Wade Miller, who was not offered a contract by the Houston Astros. In fact, if you dig into the numbers, it appears he would be an even better option (big caveat - Miller is coming off a season where he only pitched 88 innings before shutting it down due to a rotator cuff injury).

Clement vs. Miller, head-to-head? Miller is younger (28 vs. 30), has a better winning percentage (.598 vs. .479), has a lower career ERA (3.87 vs. 4.34), allows fewer baserunners per inning pitched (1.34 vs. 1.45), has pitched the same number of complete games (5) in 35% fewer starts (123 vs. 192), and barely strikes out fewer batters per 9 innings (7.7 vs. 8.0). To his credit, Clement pitches more innings per year (190.1 vs. 151.1) and allows fewer home runs per 9 innings (0.92 vs. 1.07), but I think that if Miller's injury is healed, he represents the better option. A big if, no doubt, but still.

Anyways, we'll see if JP follows his own stathead advice and makes a push for Miller. Jays fans can only hope.