Leaving the Vinsane asylum Part 2...by Apollo

Rob Babcock, you are officially on the clock.

The Vince Carter saga was pretty frustrating and draining for me and a lot of Toronto Raptors fans and now that it's over, I'm almost too annoyed to really discuss it further. I'm pretty much through trying to comment on Vince. He got way too much hype in the beginning of his career here, and way too much criticism at the end, but he was easily the best Raptors player this city has ever seen, the best athlete period ever to come through Toronto and an exemplary and underrated member of the community. Hopefully people will remember all of that, but I am highly doubtful when fans are more likely to cheer Matt Bonner over Kevin Garnett and Tie Domi over Mats Sundin. Anyway, a rare appearance by wongoz in this space would seem to necessitate a comment on the trade itself.

Wongoz correctly points out the hypocritical attitude of Toronto sports fans with respect to this trade, an attitude which I have been pointing out for years, but I'm pleased that he has finally come around to it. I have to admit that I was annoyed, then angered by the trade. I do not believe that the Raptors got much value at all for VC, but I also think that "value" for Vince was pretty low anyway, so the question then becomes why bother trading him at all? Vince's misguided trade demand came up in the summer and Babcock refused to pull the trigger on any deal at that time, when interest in Vince was probably at its peak. He gambled that VC would be forced to play well to start the year, therefore raising his trade value. A nice thought, but after a few indifferent games and the recent Achilles injury, Carter's trade value was non-existent. Odds are that no teams were calling, so where was the urgency? Babcock alleges that the trade rumours were becoming a "distraction" to the team, which I find rather questionable. In any event, New Jersey was simply biding its time and waiting for the opportunity to spring its offer, which essentially amounts to:

1. Eric Williams - A nice journeyman who can probably play defence better than Carter and Jalen Rose put together, but someone who only played significant minutes because New Jersey was even more woeful than Toronto;

2. Aaron Williams - A serviceable big man who was getting zero minutes with New Jersey, but who looks like Yao Ming compared to Rafael Araujo;

3. Alonzo Mourning - An ailing veteran centre who wanted to be traded and wasn't playing anyway; and,

4. Two protected first round draft picks, neither of which belong to New Jersey - more on these picks later.

The NBA trade deadline comes up in February, which would have given most teams a clearer idea of whether they would require the services of a Vince Carter for their playoff drive. It's always risky to wait until the deadline. Teams are hesitant to add a player who demands so many touches like Carter does. Rather, the deadline is usually for salary cap relief deals and role players. Babcock probably thought this was the best deal he could make, as evidenced by his ridiculous comment that he would have done the trade even if Mourning were not involved. He did get two first round picks and got rid of Vince's hefty salary, which would only cripple the franchise in years to come. There's a few problems with his reasoning though, which should cause Raptors fans a lot of concern.

1. The players he received in the trade are all over 32 years old, essentially the beginning of the end for NBA players. Carter, for all of his alleged deficiencies, is still in his late 20's and will surely be in the league for far longer than either Williams will remain with the Raptors;

2. The refusal by Mourning to even report to Toronto, combined with the departure of the franchise's brightest star essentially cements the Raptors' unfair reputation as a basketball wasteland. Carter now joins a long list of stars, including Damon Stoudamire, Tracy McGrady, Antonio Davis, Kenny Anderson, and Doug Christie, who sooner or later engineered their way out of Toronto. Toronto is a great place to live and play for any professional athlete, but if all they ever hear is how many stars keep leaving, it certainly doesn't help lure free agents, at least not the top tier free agents that the franchise ought to be pursuing. Any team can overpay for Morris Peterson and Rafer Alston, but when Rashard Lewis keeps turning you down, there's a problem. It also doesn't help that the Raptors could now pay millions of dollars in a buyout to ensure that Mourning never plays for them. If healthy, Mourning could have made the trade a huge win for Toronto by providing the inside presence the Raptors desperately need and allowing Chris Bosh to thrive. Now it appears his inclusion in the deal is but an after-thought;

3. New Jersey is not only in the Eastern Conference, but also in the same Atlantic Division as the Raptors. Now Toronto fans love nothing more than to boo returning former players, and Carter will certainly receive T-Mac-like treatment in April when the Nets play the Raptors again, but watching Carter drop 30 points against his former team several times a year is not the way to convince anyone you won the deal, particularly if you consistently finish behind your former franchise player's new team in the standings;

4. The draft picks - The key to the deal, as Babcock himself said. Acquiring two first round picks for any player is a decent move, but it of course depends on being able to translate those picks into talent. Several years ago, the New York Knicks were poised to make a big splash in the draft with three lottery selections. None of those players selected remain in the NBA. The Boston Celtics had three first round picks this season, but are still essentially a team that lives and dies with Paul Pierce. The picks may be exercised over the next three years. It is unclear whether Toronto has the option of choosing when the picks may be exercised, but that's less important. The 2005 first round pick, acquired from Philadelphia via New Jersey, can be no higher than the 9th selection overall in 2005 and the 6th overall pick in 2006. Currently, Philadelphia is contending for a playoff spot and is only 3 games out of the third seed in the East. Realistically, barring a collapse by Philadelphia, this pick may not even be a lottery selection.

The other first round pick, the 2006 pick from Denver via New Jersey, will also likely not be a lottery pick. Denver is currently in the last playoff spot in the West, and is forced to play in the same division as the Minnesota Timberwolves and the resurgent Seatte SuperSonics. Denver is young and a bit unpredictable, but certainly has the talent to make the playoffs for the next three years when this pick may be exercised. Considering that their record will also likely be far better than some Eastern Conference teams, this pick will be in the late teens to early 20's at best.

The main problem with the trade is that it hinges overwhelmingly on Babcock's ability to draft players, and draft players late in the first round. Thus far, Raptors fans have absolutely no evidence to suggest he can find anyone even serviceable, let alone a starter, in the draft lottery, let alone the rest of the first round! Outside of the lottery, the NBA Draft is highly unpredictable, and the Raptors' own draft history is downright atrocious. For every VC, T-Mac and Chris Bosh that the Raptors have been able to secure in the lottery, they have the ghosts of Michael Bradley, DeeAndre Hullett and Aleksandr Radojevic to haunt them. Araujo was projected to be the most "NBA-ready" big man available and Babcock swore on draft day that he was not a "project". A horrible summer league and limited minutes later, Araujo has been a disaster, a big man who cannot even get minutes on a team that is woefully inadequate in the front court. If the success of this deal is based upon what the Raptors can do in the draft, New Jersey should already be declared the overwhelming winner. Even in a best case scenario where both Philadelphia and Denver miss the playoffs and the Raptors end up with two lottery selections, Babcock is more likely to pick the next Araujo than the next Garnett. The pay off from these selections will not materialize for years, if ever, and certainly will not come within 2 years when Bosh's contract is up for renewal.

Certainly, Babcock was shackled with problems from the beginning of this, his first year with the Raptors. He had no idea that Vince would make a trade demand, and he was unfortunately left to deal with the consequences of the many screw-ups of past management. If Carter's injury-filled past hold true to form, Babcock will be congratulated down the road for unloading a $20 million salary, regardless of who he gets in the draft. The downside unfortunately, is that with Jason Kidd as his point guard, Carter will likely flourish, at least enough to make New Jersey look like winners while Toronto fans impatiently wait for the results of the newly acquired first round picks. Babcock is likely not done dealing, and if he is able to unload the equally cumbersome Jalen Rose salary this year, he will be doing well. The problem of course is that having salary cap room does not mean anything if people aren't willing to come play in your city, and these recent moves have done nothing to enhance the Raptors' attractiveness as an NBA destination. Babcock is perhaps taking the biggest risk of all by hoping that his rookie coach Sam Mitchell can take this group of overpaid role players to the playoffs this year, or at least close, thereby buying him time to rebuild the team altogether. The sad reality for fans is that with long term contracts committed to both players and management, this current group is here to stay regardless.